Every year, real estate watchers expect the housing market to slow down in winter. Fewer buyers, cautious sellers, and lower inventory typically define this season. But in 2024–2025, the dynamics in Southern California are breaking the usual script. In this November housing update, several surprising trends are emerging: inventory is tightening, buyer activity remains strong, and interest rates are more favorable than many expected. This is shaping up to be a winter market that defies norms and both buyers and sellers should pay close attention. In this blog, we'll break down why the Southern California real estate market is staying active this winter, highlight key data points from recent reports, and explain what these trends mean for different market participants. Whether you’re a buyer thinking about pulling the trigger, a seller considering your timing, or simply keeping an eye on the SoCal market, this post is for you.

What Usually Happens: Seasonal Cooling

In typical years, the real estate market slows in the winter. There are a few well-understood reasons:

• Buyer fatigue: Many serious buyers have already purchased in the spring or summer. As the holidays approach, fewer people want to make big financial moves.

• Seller hesitation: Sellers often wait until spring, when homes are more likely to show well and when families prefer to move.

• Shorter days: With less daylight and potentially less favorable conditions, open houses decline and fewer showings happen.

• Historical trends: Historically, sales volumes dip, and inventory creeps up or stabilizes during winter months.

These patterns have held for decades. But the November housing update for Southern California suggests a different story this year.

Why This Year Is Different: Key Drivers Behind the Market Strength

Several factors are contributing to an unusually active SoCal market, even as winter approaches.

a) Inventory Is Dropping, Not Rising

Contrary to expectations of inventory increasing in the winter, data from local market observers suggests that supply is tightening. The “months of supply” (MSI) declined in November.

Lower supply typically favors sellers. In key counties like Orange and San Diego, MSI is now signaling a seller’s market, while Los Angeles is becoming more balanced.This drop in supply suggests that many homeowners are choosing not to list now, likely because they are locked into favorable mortgages or because they don’t want to give up their current loan terms.

b) Strong Buyer Demand

Buyers remain active in Southern California, even though the season usually dampens activity. The California Association of REALTORS (C.A.R.) reported strong year-over-year sales for November 2024 in Southern California.

This demand may be driven by several factors:

• Rate relief: Mortgage rates have come down from their peak, making housing more affordable for some buyers. Val Ives’ November 2025 report noted that 30-year fixed rates are now in the mid-6% range.

• Locked-in homeowners: Because many existing homeowners secured very low rates in past years, they may be staying put instead of selling. This reduces available inventory, which boosts competition.

• Value-seeking: With more choice and slightly lower rates, some buyers might see this winter as an opportunity to find value and negotiate more favorable terms.

c) Moderating but Resilient Prices

While prices may not be skyrocketing, they’re holding up robustly. According to the November 2024 report from C.A.R., Southern California saw a year-over-year increase in median home price of around 3.1%.

Amalfi Estates also noted that although the median single-family home price declined month-over-month for November, the year-over-year trend remains positive. 

Sustained demand and tight supply are helping prevent large price drops. Even if we don’t see dramatic price gains, the downside risk appears limited for now.

d) Mortgage Rate Dynamics

One of the most important drivers behind this market is mortgage rates. According to C.A.R.’s December 2024 market update, the average 30-year fixed rate was around 6.72% in December.That's lower than some previous peaks, and lower rates are luring buyers back into the market.

Additionally, appraisers and analysts point to a “lock-in” effect: homeowners who locked in extremely low rates in prior years are hesitant to sell because trading in their low-rate loan for a new one in the 6%-plus range is less attractive.This reduces the supply of homes that can come onto the market, creating a tighter inventory environment.

What Data from November Is Telling Us?

Let’s dive into some of the most important data from the recent November housing update in Southern California.

a) Unsold Inventory & Supply

• According to C.A.R., the unsold inventory index (UII) for California was around 3.3 months in November 2024 for single-family homes.

• This is slightly higher than the long-term balanced-market benchmark, but in Southern California, supply seems more constrained. 

• Amalfi Estates reported that the MSI dropped in several counties in November, suggesting demand is absorbing supply faster than normal for this season.

b) Sales Volume

• C.A.R. reported that existing home sales in California rose by 1.1% from October to November 2024 and were 19.5% higher compared to November 2023.

• In Southern California specifically, year-over-year sales grew by 8.7% in November 2024. 

c) Price Movement

• The statewide median home price in November 2024 was $852,880, down 4% from October but still up 3.8% from November 2023.

• In Southern California, home price growth is outpacing some other regions, reflecting persistent demand and supply pressure.

d) Days on Market

• The C.A.R. report shows that the median days a home spent on the market in November 2024 was 28 days in Southern California, up from 21 days in November 2023. 

• This increase suggests that while homes are selling, buyers may be taking a bit more time, likely because they’re more selective in a slightly more nuanced market.

Why This Winter Might Be a Unique Opportunity (or Risk)?

Given these surprising trends, both buyers and sellers face opportunities, but also new challenges. Here’s what they should think about.

For Buyers:

1. Less Competition Than Typical Spring
   While demand is strong, buyer frenzy like that in peak spring may be more muted. The winter season could offer negotiating power for serious buyers. Because inventory is tighter and not all sellers list now, the pool of available homes may be more curated.

2. Lock-In Advantage
   Buyers can take advantage of more attractive mortgage rates compared to recent highs. They may also benefit from sellers who are more open to offers. If you secure a favorable rate now, you could ride that advantage as the market stabilizes.

3. Greater Choice
   As some sellers skip listing, but others still list, buyers may find well-priced, well-presented homes, particularly in neighborhoods that historically see strong demand.

4. Longer Decision Time
   With slightly longer days on market, buyers can be more deliberate. There may be room to negotiate, inspect, and structure purchase terms without the intense rush seen in hotter seasons.

For Sellers:

1. Opportunity to Stand Out
   With tighter supply, a well-priced and staged home could draw strong interest. There may be serious buyers who want to close before the year ends or early in the new year.

2. Realistic Pricing Matters
   Because this market isn’t red-hot as in previous years, sellers may need to be more thoughtful about pricing. Overpricing could lead to longer time on market, especially if buyers are deliberate.

3. Lock-In Effect Works Against Listing
   Many homeowners may hesitate to sell because they have locked-in mortgages at favorable rates. This could limit how many sellers enter the market now.

4. First Mover Potential
   Sellers who act early  by listing in November or December, might avoid increased competition in spring while capitalizing on serious buyers now.

Risks & Considerations

While the November housing update paints a picture of strength, there are still risks to watch:

• Rate Volatility: Mortgage rates could go up again, depending on economic conditions. A spike could cool buyer demand.

• Inventory Surprises: If more sellers decide to list in late winter or spring, supply could increase, putting downward pressure on prices.

• Economic Headwinds: Broader economic uncertainty, inflation, or job market weakness could dampen buyer confidence.

• Local Variability: Not all Southern California markets are the same, counties and ZIP codes may behave very differently. For example, inventory trends in Orange County may not match those in the Inland Empire.

• Affordability Constraints: Even with relatively lower rates, high home prices make entry difficult for many buyers.

What to Do If You’re a Buyer or Seller?

Here are some action items depending on your situation:

For Buyers:

• Talk to a mortgage broker now and lock in a rate if possible.

• Get pre-approved — having your financing lined up gives you more leverage.

• Work with an experienced local realtor who knows seasonal patterns and can help you find the right home.

• Be ready to move quickly when a good opportunity appears, but don’t rush into a bad deal.

• Think about long-term: Will this home support your needs for 5–10 years, not just for a quick flip?

For Sellers:

• Consult a realtor early. Ask for a realistic market analysis that reflects current winter demand.

• Consider staging your home — a well-presented winter listing can shine.

• Price competitively. Too high and you'll sit; too low and you leave money on the table.

• Prepare to negotiate — with fewer but serious buyers, offers may come with requests.

• Be ready for a possible spring surge — if your home doesn't sell in winter, you may have a chance later.

Broader Outlook: What This Means for SoCal in 2025?

The November housing update is a snapshot, but it also hints at broader trends for 2025:

• Supply Constraint Likely to Persist: With many homeowners locked into low rates, new listings may remain limited. That could support prices.

• Stable to Modest Price Growth: Rather than booms or busts, the market may trend toward steady growth, or at least stability,  if demand continues.

• Increased Buyer Power: As the market becomes more balanced, buyers may gain more negotiating room, especially for the right homes.

• Longer Selling Timelines: We might see longer days on market becoming the norm, especially for sellers who don’t price aggressively.

• Investor Attention: Investors may eye these conditions: stable demand, limited supply, and predictable growth could make SoCal attractive.

Conclusion

The November housing update for Southern California challenges conventional wisdom. Instead of a seasonal cooldown, this winter could bring continued strength: shrinking inventory, steady buyer activity, and favorable mortgage dynamics. These trends create interesting opportunities and risks for both buyers and sellers.

• Buyers may find more control and better deals than in a frenzied spring market.

• Sellers who list now could benefit from limited competition and serious buyers.

• But both parties must act carefully: pricing, timing, and strategy are more important than ever.

As always, the SoCal real estate market is deeply local. County by county, city by city, conditions vary, and working with an expert who understands your neighborhood can make all the difference.

Ready to navigate Southern California’s fast-moving November housing market? Contact Jack Ma Real Estate today for expert guidance, local insights, and a winning strategy for buying or selling this winter. Let’s make your next move a smart and successful one, reach out now!

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. Why is the Southern California housing market not slowing down this November?

Because supply is tightening and buyers remain active. Data shows a drop in months of supply, while demand is fueled by favorable mortgage rates and less willingness from homeowners to sell.

2. What mortgage rate trends are influencing this winter market?

Mortgage rates have eased from recent highs, with 30-year fixed rates dropping into the mid-6% range. This has encouraged buyers to re-enter the market.

3. Is winter a good time to buy in Southern California this year?

Yes, with fewer competing buyers and tighter inventory, winter 2024–2025 may present a window of opportunity for well-qualified buyers to negotiate.

4. What should sellers do if they want to list their home this winter?

Sellers should price realistically, stage their home well, and be prepared to negotiate. Listing in November or December could help them reach serious buyers with less competition.

5. Could the market cool again in spring 2025?

Yes. While the November housing update shows strength, future inventory increases or rate hikes could change conditions. It’s important for both buyers and sellers to monitor market trends closely.