🏡 Why Homeowners Are Staying Put for 33 Years in Southern California

The Southern California housing market is facing a unique phenomenon: people simply aren’t moving. In fact, the average homeowner in SoCal now stays in their home for 33 years. That’s not a typo—33 years.

So, what’s behind this dramatic slowdown in home sales? And what does it mean for buyers and sellers in today’s market?

Let’s dive into the numbers and unpack what’s really happening.

📉 The Decline in Home Sales Turnover

Before the Great Recession, the U.S. housing market saw a healthy rate of home resales. From 2003 to 2006, there were approximately 6.63 million residential resales each year. But after the market crash and housing correction, that number fell significantly.

From 2012 through 2019, the average dropped to 5.2 million resales per year—a 22% decrease.

Fast forward to 2023 and 2024, and we’re seeing even lower numbers.

🏠 2024 projected U.S. resales: 4.08 million, down a massive 38% from the pre-crisis peak.

This isn't just a national issue—Southern California is experiencing the same trend.

📊 SoCal Turnover Rates: A Closer Look

Based on 2024 closed sales, the annual turnover rate is now:

Just 2.7% to 3.9% of homeowners sold their properties last year, meaning homes rarely change hands—and the housing supply remains tight.

🔍 Why Are People Staying in Their Homes So Long?

1. The Legacy of the Great Recession

The housing crisis of 2008 deeply impacted how Americans view homeownership. Many lost homes to foreclosure or knew someone who did. As a result, buyers today are more cautious and committed to staying long-term.

2. Record-Low Mortgage Rates

Millions of homeowners refinanced to historically low rates in the 2–3% range. Now, with rates hovering near 7%, there’s little incentive to sell and buy again at a higher cost.

3. The Rise of the “Forever Home”

More people today are buying with the mindset of putting down roots. Stability, community, and lifestyle matter more than jumping to the next property.

4. Baby Boomers Aging in Place

Instead of downsizing, many seniors are staying put. Longer life expectancy, better health, and low-rate mortgages make it easier to remain in their homes.

5. Pandemic Aftershock

COVID-era rates caused a rush to buy and refinance. Now, we’re in the hangover stage—with lower demand, fewer listings, and a wait-it-out mindset from many homeowners.

⚖️ The New Normal: Less Turnover, Lower Inventory

The combination of low turnover and fewer new listings has kept housing inventory extremely tight. Even as rates rose in 2023 and 2024, fewer homeowners put their homes on the market, making the supply-demand balance unpredictable.

Buyers who are ready to act are finding limited choices—and sellers who price correctly are still seeing strong demand.

🔮 What Happens When Rates Drop Again?

When mortgage rates fall to around 6% or lower, we’ll likely see demand spike again. More homeowners may be willing to list. More buyers will qualify for financing. But don’t expect a flood of homes to hit the market overnight.

Instead, the turnover rate may slowly rise to pre-2019 levels—still far below what we saw two decades ago.

✅ Final Thoughts: What This Means for You

Whether you're buying, selling, or simply staying informed, understanding the market’s low turnover rate gives you an edge.

📌 For sellers: Fewer listings = less competition. If you’re thinking about moving, this could be the optimal time to get top dollar—especially with buyers still active despite higher rates.

📌 For buyers: Be prepared, pre-approved, and patient. The right home may take longer to find, but when it comes, you need to act fast.

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