The housing market is shaped by a broad range of economic factors, all of which interact to influence home prices and overall market dynamics. From interest rates and inflation to labor shortages and changes in government policy, every element plays a role in determining market activity. Understanding how these factors interconnect is crucial for anyone involved in the housing market—whether you’re a buyer, seller, investor, or simply an observer.
In 2024, we’ve seen significant shifts in the economic landscape that have directly impacted the housing sector. Interest rates, a primary factor affecting home affordability, have fluctuated, while inflation has shown signs of stabilization. Additionally, rising tariffs, labor shortages in construction, and changes in tax policy are adding layers of complexity to an already dynamic market. This blog will explore how these factors are influencing the housing market and provide insights into what these developments mean for home values in the near future.
Interest Rates: The Primary Driver of Housing Market Activity
Interest rates are perhaps the most influential factor when it comes to the housing market. When rates rise, particularly to levels above 7%, the cost of borrowing increases, leading to a significant slowdown in buyer activity as we had seen in April. Higher rates make homeownership less affordable, deterring potential buyers and even discouraging sellers from listing their homes, as moving up the property ladder becomes more expensive.
Throughout much of 2024, we saw interest rates hover in the 7% range, which led to a sluggish housing market. However, in September, the mortgage rate dropped to approximately 6%, triggering a noticeable uptick in market activity. This shift highlights the sensitivity of the housing market to interest rate changes. Buyers are more willing to re-enter the market when borrowing costs are lower, and sellers are more inclined to list their homes.
That said, while lower rates can lead to an increase in activity, they do not guarantee a full market recovery. It takes time for consumer confidence to rebound, and other economic factors will continue to influence the market’s stability.
Inflation: Stabilizing, but Not Without Implications
Inflation has been a key issue for the economy over the past few years, and while we have seen the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stabilize at around 2%—the Federal Reserve’s target—this does not mean that prices of goods will decline. Stabilization in the CPI indicates that the rapid rise in costs is slowing, but it doesn’t signal deflation.
For consumers, this means that while the price of a meal may not increase at the same pace they did in the past, they are unlikely to decrease significantly unless there is a major downturn in demand. For prices to drop, we would need a significant reduction in buyer activity, which typically accompanies a serious economic recession. Thus, while inflation appears under control, maintaining that stability will be crucial to the overall health of the housing market.
Tariffs and Their Impact on Costs of Goods
Tariffs, or taxes on imported goods, directly affect the cost of materials used in homebuilding, such as lumber, steel, and appliances. When tariffs increase, the price of these materials and goods rise, driving up the overall cost of new home construction and price of consumer goods.
Labor Shortages and Immigration Policy: Compounding Construction Challenges
Labor shortages in the construction industry are another factor impacting the housing market. Many of the workers in this sector are immigrants, some of whom may not have legal documentation. Changes in immigration policy, such as increased deportations, could exacerbate labor shortages, leading to delays in homebuilding projects and rising labor costs.
A shortage of construction workers means that fewer homes are being built, which, coupled with high demand, puts further upward pressure on home prices. Additionally, when there are fewer workers available, wages in the construction industry rise, increasing the overall cost of building homes. This can delay the completion of new housing projects and tighten inventory levels, which only compounds the affordability crisis in the housing market.
Tax Cuts and Consumer Spending: A Double-Edged Sword
Tax cuts can have a stimulating effect on the broader economy, particularly by increasing disposable income for consumers. When individuals pay less in taxes, they often spend more on goods and services. Increased consumer demand can lead to higher prices.
However, while increased consumer spending can boost economic growth, it can also contribute to inflationary pressures. If demand for housing continues to outstrip supply, particularly in markets with limited inventory, home prices may continue to rise. Additionally, if wages increase alongside demand, this could further contribute to rising housing costs, making it even harder for buyers to find affordable homes.
Unemployment Trends: Signs of Economic Softening
The unemployment rate currently stands at approximately 4.1%, a slight uptick in recent months. This trend could signal a softening of the labor market, which often precedes a broader economic slowdown. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring these trends, as rising unemployment can indicate weakening economic activity, which may prompt the Fed to adjust its monetary policy.
In response to signs of economic softening, the Federal Reserve has already cut interest rates by 0.5% in September, followed by a 0.25% reduction recently. These rate cuts are aimed at stimulating economic activity and preventing further increases in unemployment. The expectation of the market is that the Fed will cut the rate by another 0.25% in December and multiple time through first part of 2025.
What Does This Mean for Home Values?
With the expectation of continuing rate cut, we may see 6% interest rate around the spring market of 2025. Spring time usually is the busiest time for real estate industry. The combination of seasonally and low rate will cause the price to continue to rise. However, the interplay of interest rates, inflation, tariffs, labor shortages, and other economic factors creates a complex landscape for the housing market. While lower interest rates and stabilized inflation could support continued demand for housing, the overall picture remains uncertain.
Ultimately, whether home values continue to rise or level off will depend on how these various factors evolve. If the Federal Reserve can maintain inflation control and stabilize unemployment, we may see a period of more stable home prices. Multiple sources including National Association of Realtors have predicted that we we’ll see a moderate growth on home prices in the next few years.